Use of a Sprayable Sex Pheromone Formulation in Landscape-Level Control of Choristoneura fumiferana Populations.

Choristoneura fumiferana (SBW) is a major defoliating pest of balsam fir and spruce in eastern North America. As part of an integrated management strategy for SBW, we evaluated the effectiveness of mating disruption as a landscape-level population control tactic. Using a sprayable formulation (CONFOUNDSBW) containing a synthetic sex pheromone blend, we treated five 300 ha blocks in Northern New Brunswick with an aerially applied microencapsulated mixture. There were significant reductions in adult trap catches in treated blocks compared to untreated control blocks. Branch sampling in treated blocks showed uniform distribution of CONFOUNDSBW deposition throughout the blocks. Population densities following treatment were not significantly affected when compared to densities in control blocks, or prior to treatment. Analysis of egg:adult ratios indicates that no immigration events occurred within treatment or control blocks. The lack of population reduction following treatment strongly suggests that widespread application of CONFOUNDSBW at a rate of 50 g of active ingredient per hectare is not an effective tool in controlling SBW populations.

Temperature-dependent Development, Survival, and Oviposition of Laricobius osakensis (Coleoptera: Derodontidae): A Specialist Predator of Adelges tsugae (Hemiptera: Adelgidae).

A predator, Laricobius osakensis Montgomery and Shiyake (Coleoptera: Derodontidae), is being mass-produced and released for the biological control of the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA), Adelges tsugae Annand (Hemiptera: Adelgidae). To better understand and predict the seasonality of this predator in North America, the development and reproduction of L. osakensis were evaluated at constant temperatures ranging from 5 to 22°C. The predicted seasonal biology was compared with data from field collections. L. osakensis did not complete development from egg to adult at the two lowest temperatures tested, 5 and 8°C, but did so at the highest temperature of 22°C. The minimum development thresholds were estimated for eggs (4.2°C), first (1.8°C), second (5.5°C), third (4.6°C), and fourth instar (4.1°C), prepupa (3.6°C), and pupa (7.5°C). Oviposition rates were significantly greater at 5 and 10°C than at 20 and 25°C. Head capsule width significantly increased for each of the four larval instars with a mean of 0.19, 0.26, 0.35, and 0.44 mm, respectively. Laboratory and field data were used to develop a phenology forecasting model to predict the occurrence of all developmental stages of L. osakensis. This model will allow land managers to more accurately predict the optimal timing for L. osakensis larval sampling throughout its established range.

Development of a qPCR-based method for counting overwintering spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) larvae collected during fall surveys and for assessing their natural enemy load: a proof-of-concept study.

BACKGROUND: In eastern Canada, surveys of overwintering 2nd instar spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) larvae ('L2s') are carried out each fall to guide insecticide application decisions in the following spring. These surveys involve the collection of fir and spruce branches in selected stands, followed by the mechanical/chemical removal of larvae. The latter then are counted manually on filter papers, using a stereomicroscope. Considering the significant effort and difficulties which this manual counting entails, we developed a quantitative (q)PCR-based 'molecular counting' approach designed to make this step less tedious. RESULTS: Using the C. fumiferana mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase 1 (COI) gene as a target for qPCR DNA quantification, we show that the amount of DNA in a larval extract is strongly correlated with the number of larvae used to generate that extract, and that molecular estimates of L2 counts are comparable to those generated using the manual approach. In addition, we used the same DNA extracts to monitor the microsporidian pathogen Nosema fumiferanae, and the hymenopteran parasitoids Glypta fumiferanae and Apanteles fumiferanae in overwintering L2s employing a subset of a TaqMan assay developed by Nisole et al. (2020) for the identification of budworm natural enemies. We show that the proportion of individuals affected by each natural enemy in samples containing a known number of larvae can be estimated from presence/absence data through the binomial probability distribution. CONCLUSION: The present proof-of-principle study shows that a molecular approach for counting L2s and assessing their natural enemy load is clearly possible and is expected to generate reliable results. © 2021 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources Canada.

Large-scale genome-wide study reveals climate adaptive variability in a cosmopolitan pest.

Understanding the genetic basis of climatic adaptation is essential for predicting species' responses to climate change. However, intraspecific variation of these responses arising from local adaptation remains ambiguous for most species. Here, we analyze genomic data from diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) collected from 75 sites spanning six continents to reveal that climate-associated adaptive variation exhibits a roughly latitudinal pattern. By developing an eco-genetic index that combines genetic variation and physiological responses, we predict that most P. xylostella populations have high tolerance to projected future climates. Using genome editing, a key gene, PxCad, emerged from our analysis as functionally temperature responsive. Our results demonstrate that P. xylostella is largely capable of tolerating future climates in most of the world and will remain a global pest beyond 2050. This work improves our understanding of adaptive variation along environmental gradients, and advances pest forecasting by highlighting the genetic basis for local climate adaptation.

Avian Predation in a Declining Outbreak Population of the Spruce Budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae).

The impact of avian predation on a declining population of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumifereana (Clem.), was measured using single-tree exclosure cages in a mature stand of balsam fir, Abies balsamea (L.), and white spruce, Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. Bird population censuses and observations of foraging and nest-feeding activity were also made to determine the response of budworm-linked warblers to decreasing food availability. Seasonal patterns of foraging. as well as foraging success in the declining prey population was compared to similar information from birds observed in another stand where the spruce budworm population was rising. Avian predation was an important source of mortality between the 4th instar and moth emergence in the declining outbreak population. Mortality by predation increased from negligible to over 98% as budworm density dropped from 100 to <1 larva/kg of host foliage, over 3 years. Calculations based on nest-feeding activity and basic metabolic demands support these observed rates. Seasonal and yearly differences in predation rates observed between the two host-tree species correspond to equivalent shifts in bird foraging behavior in response to dropping insect density. In particular, a preference for searching on white spruce disappeared, although budworm-linked birds remained more efficient at finding food on this plant. The ability to change foraging behavior as prey density dropped differed between bird species.

Do natural enemies explain fluctuations in low-density spruce budworm populations?

Understanding the causal pathways through which forest insect outbreaks are triggered is important for resource managers. However, detailed population dynamics studies are hard to conduct in low-density, pre-outbreak populations because the insects are difficult to sample in sufficient numbers. Using laboratory-raised larvae installed in the field across a 1,000 km east-west gradient in Québec (Canada) over an 11-yr period, we examined if parasitism and predation were likely to explain fluctuations in low-density spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana; SBW) populations. Parasitism rates by the two main larval parasitoid species, Elachertus cacoeciae and Tranosema rostrale, peaked during different years. This suggests that temporal fluctuations in overall parasitism were partly buffered by compensatory dynamics among parasitoid species. Still, spatial covariance analyses indicate that the residual interannual variation in parasitism rates was substantial and correlated over large distances (up to 700 km). On the other hand, interannual variation in predation rates was not spatially correlated. Piecewise structural equation models indicate that temporal variation in parasitism and predation does not influence temporal variation in wild SBW abundance. Spatially, however, SBWs installed in warmer locations tended to show higher parasitism rates, and these higher rates correlated with lower wild SBW population levels. Overall, the results indicate that large-scale drops in parasitism occur and could potentially contribute to SBW population increases. However, during the period covered by this study, other factors such as direct effects of weather on SBW larval development or indirect effects through host tree physiology or phenology were more likely to explain large-scale variation in wild SBW populations.

Two sides of a coin: host-plant synchrony fitness trade-offs in the population dynamics of the western spruce budworm.

Conifer-feeding budworms emerge from overwintering sites as small larvae in early spring, several days before budburst, and mine old needles. These early-emerging larvae suffer considerable mortality during this foraging period as they disperse in search of available, current-year buds. Once buds flush, surviving budworms construct feeding shelters and must complete maturation before fresh host foliage senesces and lignifies later in the summer. Late-developing larvae suffer greater mortality and survivors have lower fecundity when feeding on older foliage. Thus, there is a seasonal trade-off in fitness associated with host synchrony: early-emerging budworms have a greater risk of mortality during spring dispersal but gain better access to the most nutritious foliage, while, on the other hand, late-emerging larvae incur a lower risk during the initial foraging period but must contend with rapidly diminishing resource quality at the end of the feeding period. We investigate the balance that results from these early-season and late-season synchrony fitness trade-offs using the concept of the phenological window. Parameters associated with the variation in the phenological window are used to estimate generational fitness as a function of host-plant synchrony. Because defoliation modifies these relationships, it is also included in the analysis. We show that fitness trade-offs characterizing the phenological window result in a robust synchrony relationship between budworm and host plant over a wide geographic range in southern British Columbia, Canada.

High temperature induces downregulation of polydnavirus gene transcription in lepidopteran host and enhances accumulation of host immunity gene transcripts.

Endoparasitoids face the challenge of overcoming the immune reaction of their hosts, which typically consists of encapsulation and melanisation of parasitoid eggs or larvae. Some endoparasitic wasps such as the solitary Tranosema rostrale (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) that lay their eggs in larvae of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), have evolved a symbiotic relationship with a polydnavirus (PDV), which in turn helps them suppress the host's immune response. We observed an increase in mortality of immature T. rostrale with increasing temperature, and we tested two hypotheses about the mechanisms involved: high temperatures (1) hamper the expression of T. rostrale PDV genes and (2) enhance the expression of spruce budworm immunity-related genes. Dissections of parasitized spruce budworm larvae reared at 30°C revealed that most parasitoid eggs or larvae had died as a result of encapsulation and melanisation by the host. A qPCR analysis of T. rostrale PDV (TrIV) gene expression showed that the transcription of several TrIV genes in host larvae was downregulated at high temperature. On the other hand, encapsulation, but not melanisation, of foreign bodies in spruce budworm larvae was enhanced at high temperatures, as shown by the injection of Sephadex™ beads into larvae. However, at the molecular level, the transcription of genes related to spruce budworm's melanisation process (prophenoloxidase 1 and 2) was upregulated. Our results support the hypothesis that a temperature-dependent increase of encapsulation response is due to the combined effects of reduced expression of TrIV genes and enhanced expression of host immune genes.

Developmental and reproductive responses of the spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) parasitoid Tranosema rostrale (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) to temperature.

The temperature-dependent development and survival of immatures, as well as adult longevity and potential fecundity of the endoparasitoid Tranosema rostrale (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) parasitizing spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) larvae was investigated under laboratory conditions at several constant temperatures ranging from 5 to 30°C. Maximum likelihood modeling approaches were used to estimate thermal responses in development, survival, and longevity. A model describing the effect of temperature on potential fecundity of the parasitoid was also developed taking oogenesis and oosorption into account. In-host and pupal development rates of the parasitoid increased with temperature up to 25°C, and decreased thereafter. Immature survival was highest below 20°C, and rapidly decreased at higher temperatures. Adult longevity decreased exponentially with increasing temperature for both males and females. Highest potential fecundity was reached at 10°C. Considering survival and potential fecundity, the parasitoid seems best adapted to cool temperatures below 20°C. Simulations of the life-history traits under variable temperature regimes indicate that temperature fluctuations decrease survival and increase realised fecundity compared to constant temperatures. The temperature-dependent fecundity model developed can be applied to other non-host-feeding synovigenic parasitoids. The equations and parameter estimates provided in this paper can be used to build comprehensive models predicting the seasonal phenology of this parasitoid and spruce budworm parasitism under changing climatic conditions.

Seasonal Parasitism and Host Instar Preference by the Spruce Budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Larval Parasitoid Tranosema rostrale (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae).

The seasonal pattern of parasitism by a parasitoid can be influenced by many factors, such as interspecific competition and host instar preference. We conducted field and laboratory experiments to describe the seasonal pattern of parasitism of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens) larvae by Tranosema rostrale (Brischke), and to investigate whether this pattern can be explained by interaction with other parasitoid species, or by host instar preference. Larval survival, developmental time, sex ratio, and adult size of T. rostrale developing in different host instars were also measured to further assess the potential importance of host instar on parasitoid life history. Parasitism by T. rostrale increased over the season, reaching the highest rate during the fourth-instar larva, and then decreased again until the sixth-instar. At the same time, parasitism by another parasitoid, Elachertus cacoeciae (Howard), increased over the season, and multiparasitism with T. rostrale suggests potential competition between these two parasitoids. Tranosema rostrale showed no host instar preference when third- to sixth-instar larvae were exposed simultaneously in a manipulative field experiment. The proportion of females emerging from spruce budworm larvae increased over the season; however, no difference in sex ratio was observed in the manipulative field experiment. Only male pupal development time and adult size were marginally increased in fifth-instar spruce budworm larvae. We conclude that T. rostrale's seasonal phenology or competition with E. cacoeciae, but not host instar preference, were possibly responsible for the observed seasonal pattern of parasitism.

Changes in the distribution of multispecies pest assemblages affect levels of crop damage in warming tropical Andes.

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies. In this contribution, we constructed and evaluated process-based species distribution models for three invasive potato pests in the Tropical Andean Region. These three species have been found to co-occur and interact within the same potato tuber, causing different levels of damage to crop. Our models allowed us to predict the current and future distribution of the species and therefore, to assess how damage to crop might change in the future due to novel interactions. In general, our study revealed the main challenges related to distribution modeling of invasive pests in highly heterogeneous regions. It yielded different results for the three species, both in terms of accuracy and distribution, with one species surviving best at lower altitudes and the other two performing better at higher altitudes. As to future distributions our results suggested that the three species will show different responses to climate change, with one of them expanding to higher altitudes, another contracting its range and the other shifting its distribution to higher altitudes. These changes will result in novel areas of co-occurrence and hence, interactions of the pests, which will cause different levels of damage to crop. Combining population dynamics and species distribution models that incorporate interspecific trade-off relationships in different environments revealed a powerful approach to provide predictions about the response of an assemblage of interacting species to future environmental changes and their impact on process rates.

Influence of partial cutting on parasitism of endemic spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) populations.

Silvicultural treatments such as thinning have been suggested as management tools against the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Among other things, parasitoids are also proposed to be influenced by silvicultural procedures, but the effect of thinning on spruce budworm's natural enemies has not been tested yet. In this study, the influence of partial cutting on parasitism of endemic spruce budworm populations has been investigated in mature balsam fir-white birch forests. Two intensities of partial cutting (25 and 40% stand basal area reduced) were conducted in 2009 and parasitism of introduced spruce budworm larvae and pupae was determined during the 3 yr after these treatments. Pupal parasitism was too low for comparison between treatments. However, 2 yr after treatments, parasitism of the fourth- and fifth-instar larvae was significantly reduced in plots with both intensities of partial cutting, which was attributed to the parasitoid Tranosema rostrale (Brischke). Three years after treatments, no significant influence of partial cutting on parasitism of spruce budworm larvae was found. This study suggests that the influence of partial cutting on parasitism of endemic spruce budworm populations is not consistent, but that under certain circumstances parasitism is reduced by partial cutting.

Modeling temperature-dependent survival with small datasets: insights from tropical mountain agricultural pests.

Many regions are increasingly threatened by agricultural pests but suffer from a lack of data that hampers the development of adequate population dynamics models that could contribute to pest management strategies. Here, we present a new model relating pest survival to temperature and compare its performance with two published models. We were particularly interested in their ability to simulate the deleterious effect of extreme temperatures even when adjusted to datasets that did not include extreme temperature conditions. We adjusted the models to survival data of three species of potato tuber moth (PTM), some major pests in the Tropical Andes. To evaluate model performance, we considered both goodness-of-fit and robustness. The latter consisted in evaluating their ability to predict the actual altitudinal limits of the species in the Ecuadorian Andes. We found that even though our model did not always provide the best fit to data, it predicted extreme temperature mortality and altitudinal limits accurately and better than the other two models. Our study shows that the ability to accurately represent the physiological limits of species is important to provide robust predictions of invasive pests' potential distribution, particularly in places where temperatures approach lethal extremes. The value of our model lies in its ability to simulate accurate thermal tolerance curves even with small datasets, which is useful in places where adequate pest management is urgent but data are scarce.

Effects of temperature on development, survival and reproduction of insects: experimental design, data analysis and modeling.

The developmental response of insects to temperature is important in understanding the ecology of insect life histories. Temperature-dependent phenology models permit examination of the impacts of temperature on the geographical distributions, population dynamics and management of insects. The measurement of insect developmental, survival and reproductive responses to temperature poses practical challenges because of their modality, variability among individuals and high mortality near the lower and upper threshold temperatures. We address this challenge with an integrated approach to the design of experiments and analysis of data based on maximum likelihood. This approach expands, simplifies and unifies the analysis of laboratory data parameterizing the thermal responses of insects in particular and poikilotherms in general. This approach allows the use of censored observations (records of surviving individuals that have not completed development after a certain time) and accommodates observations from temperature transfer treatments in which individuals pass only a portion of their development at an extreme (near-threshold) temperature and are then placed in optimal conditions to complete their development with a higher rate of survival. Results obtained from this approach are directly applicable to individual-based modeling of insect development, survival and reproduction with respect to temperature. This approach makes possible the development of process-based phenology models that are based on optimal use of available information, and will aid in the development of powerful tools for analyzing eruptive insect population behavior and response to changing climatic conditions.

Response of Lymantria dispar L. (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) to Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki at different ingested doses and temperatures.

We examined mortality and feeding inhibition response of Lymantria dispar L. (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) larvae to ingested doses of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki as a function of dose, instar and temperature. We developed generalized (logistic) linear mixed models and a mixture survival model, commonly used in medical statistics, to analyze the complex data set. We conducted bioassays of Foray 48B with larvae from the NJSS laboratory stock, using droplet imbibing or force-feeding to ensure dose ingestion. The dose causing mortality in 50% of the test population (LD(50)) under standard test conditions (22 degrees C) ranged from 0.019 International Units (IU)/larva for first instar larvae (L(1)) to 1.6 IU/larva for L(4). Temperature affected larval mortality in two ways. Mortality occurred sooner and progressed more rapidly with increasing temperature (13-25 degrees C) at each dose level and instar, while the maximum level of mortality attained by each instar decreased with increasing rearing temperature. The mechanisms underlying this effect are being investigated. Larvae that survived exposure to B. thuringiensis resumed feeding after a period that was dependent on instar, dose, and temperature. The equations describing observed mortality and feeding recovery responses were used to construct a simulation model, which was able to predict both processes, and which forms the basis for a process-oriented model that can be used as a decision support tool in aerial sprays.

Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis.

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.

Modeling cold tolerance in the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae.

Cold-induced mortality is a key factor driving mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, population dynamics. In this species, the supercooling point (SCP) is representative of mortality induced by acute cold exposure. Mountain pine beetle SCP and associated cold-induced mortality fluctuate throughout a generation, with the highest SCPs prior to and following winter. Using observed SCPs of field-collected D. ponderosae larvae throughout the developmental season and associated phloem temperatures, we developed a mechanistic model that describes the SCP distribution of a population as a function of daily changes in the temperature-dependent processes leading to gain and loss of cold tolerance. It is based on the changing proportion of individuals in three states: (1) a non cold-hardened, feeding state, (2) an intermediate state in which insects have ceased feeding, voided their gut content and eliminated as many ice-nucleating agents as possible from the body, and (3) a fully cold-hardened state where insects have accumulated a maximum concentration of cryoprotectants (e.g. glycerol). Shifts in the proportion of individuals in each state occur in response to the driving variables influencing the opposite rates of gain and loss of cold hardening. The level of cold-induced mortality predicted by the model and its relation to extreme winter temperature is in good agreement with a range of field and laboratory observations. Our model predicts that cold tolerance of D. ponderosae varies within a season, among seasons, and among geographic locations depending on local climate. This variability is an emergent property of the model, and has important implications for understanding the insect's response to seasonal fluctuations in temperature, as well as population response to climate change. Because cold-induced mortality is but one of several major influences of climate on D. ponderosae population dynamics, we suggest that this model be integrated with others simulating the insect's biology.

Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America north of Mexico.

A simple, stochastic daily temperature and precipitation generator (TEMPGEN) was developed to generate inputs for the study of the effects of climate change on models driven by daily weather information when climate data are available as monthly summaries. The model uses as input only 11 sets of monthly normal statistics from individual weather stations. It needs no calibration, and was parameterized and validated for use in Canada and the continental United States. Monthly normals needed are: mean and standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperature, first and second order autoregressive terms for daily deviations of minimum and maximum temperatures from their daily means, correlation of deviations of daily minimum and maximum temperatures, total precipitation, and the interannual variance of total precipitation. The statistical properties and distributions of daily temperature and precipitation data produced by this generator compared quite favorably with observations from 708 stations throughout North America (north of Mexico). The algorithm generates realistic seasonal patterns, variability and extremes of temperature, precipitation, frost-free periods and hot spells. However, it predicts less accurately the daily probability of precipitation, extreme precipitation events and the duration of extreme droughts.

Risk assessment of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L), in New Zealand based on phenology modelling.

The gypsy moth is a global pest that has not yet established in New Zealand despite individual moths having been discovered near ports. A climate-driven phenology model previously used in North America was applied to New Zealand. Weather and elevation data were used as inputs to predict where sustainable populations could potentially exist and predict the timing of hatch and oviposition in different regions. Results for New Zealand were compared with those in the Canadian Maritimes (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island) where the gypsy moth has long been established. Model results agree with the current distribution of the gypsy moth in the Canadian Maritimes and predict that the majority of New Zealand's North Island and the northern coastal regions of the South Island have a suitable climate to allow stable seasonality of the gypsy moth. New Zealand's climate appears more forgiving than that of the Canadian Maritimes, as the model predicts a wider range of oviposition dates leading to stable seasonality. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of climate change on the predicted potential distribution for New Zealand. Climate change scenarios show an increase in probability of establishment throughout New Zealand, most noticeably in the South Island.

Spruce budworm impact, abundance and parasitism rate in a patchy landscape.

The hypothesis that vegetational diversity may lessen the impact of forest insect pests by favoring natural enemies is appealing to those who seek ecologically sound solutions to pest problems. We investigated the effect of forest diversity on the impact of the spruce budworm Choristoneurafumiferana following the last outbreak, as well as the budworm's current abundance and parasitism rate, in the boreal forest of northwestern Québec. Mortality of balsam fir caused by the budworm was greater in extensive conifer stands than either in "habitat islands" of fir surrounded by deciduous forest or on true islands in the middle of a lake. Adult spruce budworm abundance, assessed by pheromone traps, did not differ significantly between the three types of sites. Larval and pupal parasitism rates were examined by transferring cohorts of laboratory-reared larvae and pupae to trees in the three site types and later collecting and rearing them. The tachinid Actiainterrupta, a parasitoid of fifth and sixth instar larvae, as well as the ichneumonid pupal parasitoids Itoplectesconquisitor, Ephialtesontario and Phaeogenesmaculicornis, caused higher mortality in the habitat islands than on true islands or in extensive stands. Exochusnigripalpistectulum, an ichneumonid that attacks the larvae and emerges from the pupae, caused greater mortality in the extensive stands of conifers.